Value Blog
Short, data-led pieces built from the numbers on the dashboard and planner: a deadline brief before every gameweek, plus value reports, template checks and fixture swings.
João Pedro is out: who replaces him
João Pedro is flagged out with a thigh injury and two-thirds of managers own him. The model's best forward replacements for GW9–13, whether holding through the international break adds up, and why Thiago is the like-for-like swap.
Deadline brief: GW9
Haaland is the clearest captain of the season so far, Thiago is the like-for-like replacement for an injured João Pedro, and Bournemouth's £5.0m Silva is the value pick. Plus last week's scorecard, the fixtures, the model's XI and its track record.
Which teams are really in form
Last-five results barely predict the next six games. Twelve seasons of Understat data show what does. On those measures Bournemouth, Brighton and Forest are improving, while Palace, Newcastle and Villa are declining.
Deadline brief: GW8
The model backs Bruno Fernandes over a doubtful Haaland, Bournemouth are the unluckiest attack in the league and Tavernier is the way in, and Coventry's £4.0m Thomas is the best value in the game. Plus the fixtures, the model's XI and its track record so far.
Template check: GW5
Thirteen players are owned by a quarter of managers or more going into the break. The template's problem is not performance, it is fitness: two-thirds of FPL own a doubtful João Pedro, and the Szoboszlai question still has the same answer.
Value report: GW5
Into the international break: Groß is the best player in the game per pound, Bogle has finally been found, Hull's defence finally cracked, and Brentford's Schuster is the cheapest new name worth knowing. Plus the GW4 scorecard, where the Tavernier call did exactly what it was supposed to.
Template check: GW4
Nine players are owned by more than a quarter of managers. Eight are earning it. The ninth is Szoboszlai, and the answer is a £6.1m midfielder almost nobody owns.
Value report: GW4
Four gameweeks in: Bogle leads everything, Hull's defence is still standing, and the three biggest under-performers are all playing for teams that can't finish. Plus a scorecard on the GW3 calls — including the one that went badly.
Template check: who's earning their ownership?
Every player owned by more than 25% of managers, measured against expected points, with the under-10%-owned alternative at the same price. Mbeumo, Szoboszlai, Calvert-Lewin and Rogers under the lens.
Value report: GW3
Top five by VAPM, top five by points per million, and the players whose points are lagging their expected numbers after two gameweeks. Hull's defence, a Brentford midfielder nobody owns, and why Thiago is the buy.
Fixture swing: whose run turns after the break
Five teams whose fixtures ease from GW6, the longest easy runs in the calendar to GW20, and the three sides to move off before the October international break. Built from the fixture planner.