João Pedro is out: who replaces him
João Pedro missed GW8's 2-0 home defeat to Spurs, and FPL now has him flagged out with a thigh injury and no return date. He's in 66% of squads, so this is the biggest transfer decision of the week. Here's what the projections say about replacing him, and whether you need to.
Sell or hold?
The model has him at 6.1 points over GW9–13. That's what's left after it allows for a gradual return from GW10 onwards. Fit, he would project at 23.3, which would make him the best forward in the game after Haaland. So the question isn't whether he's good. It's whether he's worth carrying for two or three weeks.
The calendar helps a little. After GW10 there's an international break, and GW11 isn't until 21 November, four weeks after he was first flagged. If the injury is a short one, he could be back for GW11. Even then, selling wins on the model's numbers. Swap him for Thiago and you gain about 8.6 points across GW9 and GW10. If João Pedro then returns fully fit for GW11, you give back about 1.7 over GW11–13. That's roughly +7 points over five weeks for one free transfer, and more if his return slips.
| Option | GW9–10 | GW11–13 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell for Thiago | 8.6 | 12.4 | 21.0 |
| Hold, he's back fit for GW11 | 0.0 | 14.1 | 14.1 |
| Hold, model's return curve | 0.8 | 5.3 | 6.1 |
A −4 hit still pays on these numbers, but only just (about +3) if he's back for GW11. It pays more clearly if he misses GW11 too. If you have no free transfer, benching him for two weeks is reasonable, as long as your other two forwards are playing. FPL squads need three forwards, so the replacement has to be a forward. You can't use his slot for a midfielder.
The replacements
These are the model's best available forwards over the next five gameweeks, Haaland aside. If you can afford Haaland's £15.8m, he's still the best forward by nine points. Everyone else is bunched within three points of each other, so price and fixtures decide it.
| Player | Price | Owned | Start % | xG/90 | Pens | GW9 | GW9–13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago BRE | £7.8m | 8.9% | 98 | 0.38 | 1st | 4.6 | 21.0 |
| Calvert-Lewin LEE | £6.1m | 21.4% | 97 | 0.41 | 1st | 4.0 | 20.8 |
| Barry EVE | £5.6m | 7.3% | 88 | 0.47 | 1st | 3.9 | 19.5 |
| Isak LIV | £9.1m | 16.5% | 76 | 0.52 | 2nd | 3.3 | 19.3 |
| Gonzalo FUL | £6.0m | 5.6% | 90 | 0.43 | 1st | 3.7 | 18.9 |
| Evanilson BOU | £6.2m | 8.3% | 97 | 0.37 | – | 3.8 | 18.8 |
| N.Jackson AVL | £6.8m | 11.5% | 87 | 0.32 | 2nd | 3.6 | 18.2 |
Thiago is the like-for-like swap at exactly João Pedro's £7.8m. He has one goal from 3.78 xG this season, which is why only 9% own him and why his 23 points look poor. The model looks past that. He has played every minute available, takes Brentford's penalties, and has the highest GW9 projection of any forward after Haaland, at home to Forest. GW13 against Arsenal is the one week to bench him.
Calvert-Lewin is 0.2 behind for £1.7m less. He starts, takes the penalties and is already in a fifth of squads, so he's the safe choice if you'd rather spend the money elsewhere. Leeds' fixtures alternate, with Spurs and Coventry at home in GW10 and GW12 the ones to target.
Barry at £5.6m is the cheapest way to replace him well. His 5.08 xG is the second highest of any forward after Haaland, and he has only three goals to show for it. That's the profile of a forward due goals, not one who has been found out. His 88% start chance is the catch.
Evanilson doesn't top the list, but he has the best run of fixtures. Bournemouth's five games carry 9.0 expected goals between them, the most of any side in the league. He has three goals and four assists, but no penalties, which is what keeps him behind the top three. If you think Bournemouth's attack is about to click (see this week's team form piece), he's the forward who benefits.
Isak has the best underlying numbers on the list (0.52 xG per 90) but the lowest start chance (76%). He's also the only one who costs more than João Pedro. Arsenal at home in GW9 is the hardest fixture any of these players face this week. He's a better buy for GW11 than for GW9.
What about Chelsea?
Chelsea have played twice without João Pedro this season. They lost 3-0 at Brentford and 2-0 at home to Spurs, and didn't score in either. Their fixtures are good (Man United, Leeds and Palace at home in the next five), but the backup forwards don't make the model's list. Welbeck projects 8.5 points over the five weeks with a 19% start chance, and the model gives Emegha a 2% start chance. If you want Chelsea attacking exposure, it comes through Palmer (24.6 over five weeks, on penalties) or Rogers (20.3), not through his stand-in.
Chelsea have also scored 17 goals from 10.5 expected, the biggest overperformance in the league. Without their leading scorer that is more likely to shrink than grow, so we wouldn't pay extra for Palmer to "replace" João Pedro's goals.
Method: projections from the site's model as of 28 October (FPL data refreshed 15:16 UTC). "If fit" re-runs the same model with his injury flag removed and a 95% start chance. "Model's return curve" is the published projection, which phases an injured player back in over the weeks after the flag. Fixture colours are the model's difficulty ratings (1–5). Injury news: FPL's official status (thigh injury, unknown return date, flagged 24 October). Check the pre-match press conferences before the deadline, because a return date would change the hold-or-sell sums.